There’s No METHOD OF Knowing, Really

But Earns Partial Credit from Blogging Physicist! Well, those schedules emerged and proceeded to go, and as observed by the intrepid blogging physicist of MIT’s Technology Review arXiv blog, KentuckyFC, the hypothetical bubble didn’t pop. July In, he and his buddies pointed out that the Shanghai Composite currency markets index was following exactly this kind of trend. But they also made a fantastic prediction.

That’s a very specific prediction of the kind that economists hardly ever make. The way they came with their summary wasn’t clear, and i, for one, was very skeptical. In fact, I bet he was wrong and promised him an arXivblog T-shirt and baseball cap if the market proved otherwise. So an eye was kept by me on the index, on July 27 mentioned that it was still heading strong and.

In fact, between July 17 and 27, the index rose by 251 points, or around 8 percent. So much for the crash. So you might think. Even as we mentioned in originally commenting on Sornette’s prediction however, those were simply the schedules he and his colleagues indicated would be the probably that stock prices might start falling. Something strange happened Then. August 4 On, the marketplace hit a peak of 3,471, and it dropped then.

Dramatically. August 19 By. it had fallen to 2,786, a drop around 20 percent. Several questions one thinks of. Is this the fall that Sornette and company were predicting or only a coincidence, a regression to the mean? And if the fall relates to their prediction, could the drop have been caused by it?

There’s no chance of knowing, really. But it’s too close to Sornette’s original prediction to be ignored. If he has found ways to predict (or cause) crashes of one kind or another, then it’s hard to underestimate the significance of such a discovery. We can answer some of these questions.

First, no, Sornette and his team didn’t activate the 20% fall in the Shanghai STOCK MARKET (SSE) index with their prediction. Instead, we had found that the development of the SSE’s stock prices were primarily powered by the expectation that the business situation of Chinese companies was becoming less bad.

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Given that we’ve seen the same, parallel dynamic in the U mainly.S. That’s not to say that stock prices might not crash on the exchange. This end result sometimes appears by us directly inside our chart displaying the relative change in the SSE index, the S&P 500 (for reference) and the worthiness of Manulife stock (MFC). We see the consequence of Manulife’s announced halving of its dividend payment on 6 August 2009, which directly coincides with the starting gap we notice between the S&P 500 and the SSE index at that time.

Moreover, we see that MFC’s change in stock price has generally preceded and designated the boundary for the change in value that people observe in the SSE index. Being the result of a defined change in buyer perspective, we can completely eliminate the Sornette team’s prediction as being a trigger for the function.

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