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So, if we see low inflation, or outright deflation, this should have something to do with monetary policy. In standard financial models, deflation can occur when the nominal interest rate remains at zero indefinitely. Indeed, a ubiquitous result is that a Friedman guideline is optimal. Under a Friedman guideline for monetary policy, the nominal interest rate permanently is zero. Milton Friedman’s argument was a positive nominal interest represents a distortion.

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This distortion can be removed if the central bank acts to provide money the same rate of return as other safe resources, which will typically imply deflation, at least on pattern. So, the theory tells us that deflation can be a positive thing. If that is correct, then why do this many central banking institutions think that 2% inflation is a good idea?

Perhaps there are reasons to truly have a positive inflation tax. Currency systems are costly to use. It needs real resources to displace worn-out currency and stop counterfeiting. Aswell, currency can be used for various nefarious things – tax avoidance and illegal drug purchases, for example. So, maybe it is ideal to have positive inflation as an implicit tax on money holdings. As well, it might not make much difference for long-run economic welfare whether the inflation rate is 2% 4%, 0%, or -2%. But having a stable inflation rate is welfare-improving, as this minimizes the unanticipated redistributions between debtors and lenders that occur with unexpected changes in the inflation rate, as discussed above.